Performance Dashboard - SE Global Infrastructure

Performance Dashboard™

Dynamic AI simulation to guide
strategic decision making

POWER PRODUCERS

HYPERSCALER

SOVEREIGN

INSTITUTIONAL
INVESTOR

SEGI × Crusoe · Goodnight Campus (Amarillo, TX) · Proposal 26P0747

Time-to-MW: how TIAC accelerates the megawatts behind first fire

An illustrative decision model of the Goodnight fleet's hot-day (100°F) delivery capability from equipment order through the first full summer — with and without turbine inlet air chilling — built from Crusoe's bid-form data and stated assumptions.

Illustrative decision model — not project engineering. Fleet curves are built from bid-form milestone dates and Crusoe's own turbine model data (267.4 MW recovery at 100°F, T2 = 45°F), with per-unit ratings and intermediate firing dates entered as adjustable assumptions. No value here is an OEM guarantee or a performance commitment; SEGI engineering validates all figures at design conditions.

What "speed to first fire" means

First fire is the commissioning milestone when a gas turbine ignites fuel in its combustor for the first time — the moment the machine first runs under its own power, ahead of synchronization, loading, and commercial operation. Speed to first fire is how fast the project moves from award through equipment delivery, installation, and pre-commissioning to that ignition — here, June 16, 2027 for the first PE6000. It is the schedule heartbeat of the whole campus: every week protected is a week of earlier revenue MW for Crusoe and earlier compute for Google. SEGI's role is twofold — never touch that date (chilling installs in parallel, off the turbine critical path, retrofit-ready per the RFP), and make every fired turbine worth more, so the milestone the tenant actually buys — contracted megawatts on a 100°F day — arrives months sooner than any alternative could deliver it.

MW recovered at 100°F

+267.4 MW

All 20 GTs, T2 = 45°F — Crusoe turbine model data (bid form)

First-fire date

Jun 16, 2027

Protected — TIAC installs off the turbine critical path

Turbine-equivalent of TIAC

–

Extra units needed to match +267.4 MW on a 100°F day

Turnkey cost vs. threshold

≈$1,500/kW

At customer threshold; ORC alternative ≈ $3,000/kW (est., per RFP)

Fleet hot-day capability — run the schedule

Press Run to play the buildout from equipment order (Oct 2026) through the first full summer (Sep 2028). The curves show how many megawatts the fleet can put on the wire on a 100°F Amarillo afternoon at each date — the number Google's SLA lives on.

Ambient design day

Per-unit ISO rating (assumption) — 47 MW

Hot-day derate at 100°F (bid range 15–20%) — 17.5%

Oct 2026

Turbines fired: 0 / 20

Hot-day MW (no TIAC): 0

With TIAC: 0 MW

Turbine-only alternative: ordering

Fleet without TIAC (hot-day) Fleet with TIAC (T2 = 45°F) Lane below: the same +MW via ~7 extra turbines instead — permit + order + commission (illustrative) Summer 2028 — the delivery test

The three schedule claims this model makes — and their basis

Each claim is deliberately scoped to what the bid form and public engineering practice support.

1 · First fire is protected, not accelerated

Chilling hardware is retrofit-ready on both packages (per RFP) and installs in parallel with balance-of-plant: coils set with the GT packages during construction, chiller modules arriving Feb 2028 — months after the last turbine fires (Nov 17, 2027). Nothing SEGI does sits on the June 16, 2027 critical path. That is the honest claim; anyone promising chilling moves first fire itself is selling.

2 · Contracted MW arrives sooner with TIAC than any other path

The fleet's first summer is 2028. Without TIAC, the fleet meets it 15–20% short of nameplate. With all TIAC operational for summer 2028 (the bid requirement), the campus delivers +267.4 MW on a 100°F day — capacity that, bought as additional turbines, would mean ~7 more machines, each with its own 39–52-week equipment window, gas supply, and air-permit scope the RFP says chilling avoids.

3 · The tenant math favors the chilled path

Google's compute sits behind Crusoe's MW commitment. Every hot-day megawatt short is lost GPU-hours under an AI-compute SLA; the bid form's own outage reference puts a full campus outage at up to $70MM/day. Recovering 267.4 MW at ≈$1,500/kW turnkey — half the estimated $/kW of the ORC alternative, with no permitting impact — is the fastest, cheapest firm-MW Crusoe can put in front of its tenant.

Reviewer's note — provenance & open items

From the bid form / chairman brief USER: 267.4 MW recovery at 100°F & T2=45°F (Crusoe turbine model data); 13× PE6000 + 7× DT46 (16 duty + 4 spinning reserve); first fires Jun 16, 2027 (PE6000) and Sep 29, 2027 (DT46); last units Nov 17 / Oct 25, 2027; first chiller module on site Feb 2028; all TIAC operational for summer 2028; COD June 2028; ≈$1,100/kW equipment-only, ≈$1,500/kW turnkey vs. <$1,500/kW threshold; ORC ≈ $3,000/kW brownfield (est.) with permitting impact; $70MM/day outage reference. Assumptions (adjustable above) ASSUMED: per-unit ISO rating (default 47 MW — PE6000-class aeroderivative), uniform 15–20% hot-day derate, even interpolation of intermediate firing dates, uniform allocation of the 267.4 MW across units, TIAC capability ramp Feb–Jun 2028, ±scaling of recovery at 95°F/105°F, and a ~9-month incremental-permitting lead plus ~5-month install window on the hypothetical extra-turbine path. Engineering must validate before external use: per-model performance at design conditions (PE6000 vs. DT46 split), TIAC commissioning sequence, recovery at off-design ambients, and the $70MM/day figure's basis. Fleet curves show installed capability across all 20 units; duty/reserve dispatch is not modeled. KB consulted: core (`tiac_tes_performance_basis`, `developer_principal`, deck) — no supplemental KB found.